Author Topic: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real  (Read 1382 times)

Solon

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1561
    • View Profile
Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2017, 07:32:02 AM »
  • Publish
  • Advertisement
    Basing his proposal on George Kennan's famous X Article in Foreign Affairs, Jeffrey Bader of the Brookings Foundation offers an exploration of the options and concludes:

    Quote
    The United States should simultaneously gear up for the long-term efforts that will likely be required to contain, deter, and isolate a nuclear-capable North Korea for years to come, until the North either reforms or cracks. The North can choose between the two paths of negotiation and isolation. It is unlikely to find a third.

    ...An assertive policy of deterrence and containment of North Korea could involve the following elements:

    Military pressure on North Korea through exercises, modernization of weapons systems deployed in the area, and willingness by the United States and South Korea to respond forcefully to North Korean military provocations as we have not done in the past;
    Development and deployment of anti-ballistic missile capabilities to defend the U.S. homeland, U.S. forces in the region, and our Japanese and South Korean allies;
    Imposition of as close to an international embargo on trade and investment relations with North Korea as we can persuade the international community to adopt;
    A three-way dialogue among the United States, South Korea, and China about how we would react to various contingencies in North Korea, such as instability or breakdown;
    Understanding that the United States cannot achieve its objectives without close collaboration with both South Korea and China, North Korea’s land neighbors. In the case of China, we should be prepared to sanction Chinese entities that engage illicitly with Pyongyang in order to demonstrate we’re serious, but not go so far as to alienate China from the overall effort against North Korea;
    No assurances to North Korea of acceptance of its regime prior to agreement to denuclearize. Covert actions against the North should be part of a deterrence and containment strategy; and/or
    Strengthened political and military alliances with South Korea and Japan. We should not encourage either to develop nuclear weapons, which would make an already fragile regional security situation more unstable, but we should take steps to provide unmistakable assurance to both that the full range of U.S. military retaliatory options and protection would be available if either were threatened.

    ...But before we accept the necessity of such an approach, we could offer the North Koreans—both directly and through the South Koreans and the Chinese—one last chance for them to turn away from the disastrous course they are on. We could propose a deal that would offer them much of what they say they want in return for their complete denuclearization and dismantling of their missile program, namely:

    Establishment of full diplomatic relations;
    End of the economic embargo and sanctions, economic assistance, and investment; and
    A peace treaty to replace the 64 year-old armistice agreement.
    In such an agreement, both sides would need to undertake carefully staged and backloaded steps, since trust is nonexistent. Each side could commit to these objectives at the outset, with the timeline and key implementing framework to be negotiated. There would be nothing in such an agreement that would be contrary to U.S. national security interests, and it would provide to North Korea the security that it claims justifies its nuclear weapons programs. Such a package would provide assurance to Pyongyang that any collapse of its system would be due to its own failings, not the actions of outside powers.

    Why deterring and containing North Korea is our least bad option
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/08/08/why-deterring-and-containing-north-korea-is-our-least-bad-option/

    It's worth the read if you are serious about understanding the options.
    « Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 08:08:01 AM by Solon »
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken

    Blue Fish

    • Administrator
    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 742
      • View Profile
      • bwyatt.com
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #16 on: August 11, 2017, 12:20:34 PM »
  • Publish
  • This one is a nasty, dangerous affair - no doubt - and one that has been escalating for years. The North Korean regime is writing their own history. Russia, China, the US... and pretty much everyone else knows this is could end badly.
    It's a happy enchilada... (John Prine)

    Solon

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1561
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #17 on: August 11, 2017, 07:18:18 PM »
  • Publish
  • The AP reports that there have been ongoing back channel talks between the US and North Korea at the UN. At least there is more going on than the exchange of belligerent threats. Whether this leads to a more substantive engagement to reduce tensions and even reach some kind of agreement seems remote, but at least there is a rudimentary conversation that could help avoid a grave miscalculation.

    Quote
    People familiar with the contacts say the interactions have done nothing thus far to quell tensions over North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile advances, which are now fueling fears of military confrontation. But they say the behind-the-scenes discussions could still be a foundation for more serious negotiation, including on North Korea's nuclear weapons, should President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un put aside the bellicose rhetoric of recent days and endorse a dialogue.

    Trump refused to discuss the diplomatic contacts. "We don't want to talk about progress, we don't want to talk about back channels," Trump told reporters Friday.

    The diplomatic contacts are occurring regularly between Joseph Yun, the U.S. envoy for North Korea policy, and Pak Song Il, a senior North Korean diplomat at the country's U.N. mission, according to U.S. officials and others briefed on the process.
    APNEWSBREAK: BEYOND BLUSTER, US, NKOREA IN REGULAR CONTACT
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NORTH_KOREA_QUIET_DIPLOMACY_ASOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-08-11-18-56-16
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken

    cubsfanbudman

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 427
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #18 on: August 12, 2017, 08:00:31 PM »
  • Publish
  •   This is comingoff as a measuring stick between trump and kimjumg ding dong or whatever his name is.two world egos of the worst kind calling the shots.what an awful situation for the whole world.
    "the difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it\'s limits"
    albert einstein

    Steven

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 514
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #19 on: August 14, 2017, 07:59:17 AM »
  • Publish
  • Maybe North Korea needs to have a democratic election. So let's send them all of our democratic and republican politicians and within 5 years the government won't have any money left to buy weapons. Then we can send them illegal handguns from Chicago  and give them to all of the criminals and we can call it freedom.

    cubsfanbudman

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 427
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #20 on: August 14, 2017, 08:26:06 AM »
  • Publish
  • Maybe North Korea needs to have a democratic election. So let's send them all of our democratic and republican politicians and within 5 years the government won't have any money left to buy weapons. Then we can send them illegal handguns from Chicago  and give them to all of the criminals and we can call it freedom.
    And we can add the local legend in his own mind who relocated to save them all.only problem is he has a bigger ego than the psycho running the country. ;D
    "the difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it\'s limits"
    albert einstein

    Steven

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 514
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #21 on: August 14, 2017, 03:02:56 PM »
  • Publish
  • Who is the local legend?

    Common Sense

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 577
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #22 on: August 16, 2017, 07:57:23 AM »
  • Publish
  • I'm curious of that one myself, Steven.

    Lost admist the rise of Nazis has the potential nuclear threat from North Korea. I'm glad the General Mad Dog Mattis has stood up and grew his line in the sand against the emperial narcissistic threat in the far east. So now he's baiting us by threatening Guam??
    "It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." - POTUS #32

    Solon

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1561
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #23 on: August 17, 2017, 02:24:15 PM »
  • Publish
  • Trump's threat to rain "fire and fury" down on North Korea if Kim Jong-un makes another threat has disappeared in the fog of another of his self-induced crises. The incoherence of his administration, however, remains as evident in foreign as in domestic affairs.

    Bannon, Trump's alt-right brain, was quoted that North Korea's nuclear program was a done deal and that the US could negotiate a freeze on its further development in exchange for US withdrawal of troops from South Korea. Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, denied the possibility of such a US withdrawal while in China to discuss closer military cooperation to avoid conflict if war broke out on the Korean peninsula. Dunford still considers US military action a possibility. This can only raise the fears of our South Korean allies that they could be abandoned to face the North Koreans without the umbrella of US protection--a promise we made half a century ago, or suffer the destruction of Seoul and a million casualties resulting from a US military strike against the North. The public contradiction between two top administration figures should be resolved in private debate within the government, but the dysfunction of the Trump White House has exposed the confusion and conflict that reigns between factions and individuals.

    This policy incoherence undermines the ability of the US to deal clearly and reliably with allies and foreign foes alike. Bush and Obama were open to criticism for their decisions, but the policies were well-defined and understood by all sides. The administration has shown consistency in its pursuit of ISIL, but, in other prominent areas, it appears confused in the eyes of the world.

    The solution is evident: the appointment of missing foreign policy deputies in the State Department. The Secretary of State needs the assistance of Republican foreign policy experts who opposed Trump during the presidential campaign. Trump's personal pique should not damage US foreign policy, but it is. The president will not agree to the appointment of people, even Republicans, who opposed him. This must change. Four years of policy incoherence will leave us permanently diminished where issues of vital national security are concerned.

    Contradictory Remarks by Bannon and Dunford Deepen Confusion Over U.S. Strategy for North Korea
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/world/asia/north-korea-trump-moon-jae-in-south.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken

    Common Sense

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 577
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #24 on: August 17, 2017, 06:18:03 PM »
  • Publish
  • So, aside from "The Donald" and his temper tantrum with trying to deny white supremacy and Nazi impact....whats new with our friend over in North Korean and what does everything think is the next move?
    "It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." - POTUS #32

    cubsfanbudman

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 427
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #25 on: August 17, 2017, 06:44:15 PM »
  • Publish
  • This one is a nasty, dangerous affair - no doubt - and one that has been escalating for years. The North Korean regime is writing their own history. Russia, China, the US... and pretty much everyone else knows this is could end badly.

    I Agree,and i think no matter how differently or far apart they all are on beliefs they are apart politically,none of them wants to see the world end because of it either at the hands of this spoiled little brat in north korea that cant  be respectable and decent for once in his life.
    "the difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it\'s limits"
    albert einstein

    Solon

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1561
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #26 on: September 19, 2017, 01:29:46 AM »
  • Publish
  • In spite of the increasing level of sophistication North Korea has displayed recently in missile technology and atomic weapon development, the assurances of the Secretary of State that the US did not seek regime change, reunification of Korea, or military action against the North Koreans had left me in a state of relative calm after Trump's overheated threats. That ended on Sunday. H. R. McMaster, National Security Advisor, was on two Sunday news shows and suggested that the US would not accept a nuclear North Korea under any circumstances and that current sanctions were a last opportunity to avoid war. U.N. Representative Haley recently said North Korea was begging for war, but that was not a direct threat from the US. After she backed up McMaster yesterday, however, Gen. Mattis, Defense Secretary, suggested today that there were military options available the US could exercise in North Korea that would preclude the destruction of Seoul. All of these remarks coming in days before Trump's speech to the UN may be designed to gin up support for more decisive action by the Security Council, or, it may signal the march to war. Containment has a long and storied history for nuclear powers of the first rank. Trump and his national security group seem to be trampling on that legacy. I am very worried.

    Quote
    U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hinted on Monday about the existence of military options on North Korea that might spare Seoul from a brutal counterattack but declined to say what kind of options he was talking about or whether they involved the use of lethal force.

    U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Sunday the U.N. Security Council had run out of options on containing North Korea's nuclear program and that the United States might have to turn the matter over to the Pentagon.

    Mattis Hints at Military Options on North Korea but Offers No Details
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/18/world/asia/18reuters-northkorea-missiles-usa-mattis.html
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken

    Solon

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1561
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #27 on: September 19, 2017, 08:38:29 PM »
  • Publish

  • Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief now that Trump has told the world via the UN that we will have peace in our time...as long as North Korea does not strike first. I do not think the dictator or his minions are that crazy. However, there is no way they will ever give up their nuclear weapons given the fates of Saddam Hussein and Moammar Khadafy who did just that and were destroyed by US intervention.

    Quote
    “No nation on Earth has an interest in seeing this band of criminals arm itself with nuclear weapons and missiles,” Mr. Trump said. “The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.”

    As bellicose as he sounded, the words convey a defensive posture that asserts our capability to destroy North Korea, but a strategy that could be fulfilled with containment. The puerile characterization of Kim Jong-un is pointless buffoonery, but the implication is that the "suicide mission" would be a first strike on the US or its allies. In spite of the rhetoric that we will never accept a North Korea with nuclear weapons, that is exactly what we have accepted since the George W. Bush administration. Its constant repetition by Trump's spokesmen remains a concern. It will result in either of two undesirable actions: war or humiliation from backing down.

    With Combative Style and Epithets, Trump Takes America First to the U.N.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/world/trump-un-north-korea-iran.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken

    cubsfanbudman

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 427
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #28 on: September 26, 2017, 06:17:58 PM »
  • Publish
  • i think the leader of north korea just wants more attention than he does anything.he barks a lot,but is scared of actually doing something.that is how he has managed to stay in power so long.i do not thinl russia,china or any other world power ever want to see a nuclear explosion which  kills scores of people and if they have to will join in to stop north korea should need be,
    "the difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has it\'s limits"
    albert einstein

    Solon

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1561
      • View Profile
    Re: The Threat of Nuclear War Is Real
    « Reply #29 on: September 26, 2017, 07:15:43 PM »
  • Publish
  • i think the leader of north korea just wants more attention than he does anything.he barks a lot,but is scared of actually doing something.that is how he has managed to stay in power so long.i do not thinl russia,china or any other world power ever want to see a nuclear explosion which  kills scores of people and if they have to will join in to stop north korea should need be,

    I think you are right, I hope you are right. But the fact that North Korea has upped the ante, verbally, by claiming that they believe the US has declared war on them, leave me very concerned. The threat to conduct an atmospheric nuclear test in the Pacific with the ecological consequences that would bring, plus the threat to shoot down a US plane that comes near its borders carry serious potential consequences. Still, Kim Jong-un has not sent a missile in the direction of Guam like he threatened and that gives me some confidence that you have the right take on this.
    On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and a complete narcissistic moron.
    ...H. L. Mencken